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11
Discussions - Public / Re: Will the geek inherit the earth?
« Last post by I D Shukhov on September 21, 2018, 11:03:08 am »
As far as software I can say that I have been "industrialized" out of my field of contract software development. Nobody builds custom desktop applications today. Everything is on the cloud, and "winner take all" in that market.

So geeks will be alongside doctors wondering what happened.

The job outlook for software developers is "much faster than average" for the next 8 years:  https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/software-developers.htm  (302,500 new jobs)  So there is plenty of work for software developers to do.

As far as healthcare automation goes, IBM Watson Health https://www.ibm.com/watson/health/ employs 7,000 people. 

But it looks like all the news about it is not positive:

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/healthcare-information-technology/ibm-lays-off-significant-number-of-watson-health-employees.html


Quote
Posting anonymously to the Facebook page May 25, one former employee wrote, "Part of Watson Health layoff today. Over 50 years old. IBMer over 30 years. The message was that there are about 7,000 people in Watson Health today and this was a cost-cutting exercise. 90 days notice with 30 days severance."
  ( 30 days severance is pretty bad)

More sour grapes:  Laid-off IBM Watson Health workers call AI initiative a bust: 9 things to know

Automation of medical decision making is going to come in fits and starts just like everything that evolves.  Evolution is never orderly but proceeds anyway because of environmental pressures.  In this case, it's money and demand for best practices in medicine.

The last article quoted engineers knocking IBM management as being incompetent and that AI will disrupt healthcare:

Quote
9. The engineers said they do believe AI will disrupt healthcare, but they don't think IBM will lead that effort. Some of the employees who escaped the layoffs are now shifting their projects toward the insurance industry, they said.

"IBM has great potential, but in modern business, you adapt or go away. Workers will go to other companies," one of the engineers said. "The winner will not be IBM."

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Discussions - Public / Re: Amazing Maine Picture Shot With Cheap Samsung Phone
« Last post by The Gorn on September 21, 2018, 10:46:08 am »
Huh. Thanks for posting that.

I'd seen the dual lens phones but I assumed they were individually selected wide angle and short telephoto options that the user selects manually.

This article says that the phone performs image processing and creates a composite zoomed image from the two cameras.

An extremely clever and practical solution.

I still wonder if a "pure" telephoto zoom lens is possible in a phone form factor, but I believe that basic optics precludes that as a possibility.

You'd need a phone that's 1-2 inches deep to accommodate the lens barrel and telescoping parts.
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Discussions - Public / Re: Amazing Maine Picture Shot With Cheap Samsung Phone
« Last post by ilconsiglliere on September 21, 2018, 10:08:00 am »
Here is an article explaining how the dual lenses on smart phones work:

https://www.androidauthority.com/dual-camera-optical-zoom-technology-explained-781993/

I thought it was pretty interesting. Its not a traditional zoom lens by any means but for something that rides in your pocket, not so bad.

This year Huawei came out with the P20 Pro which has 3 lenses on the back:

=======
https://www.pocket-lint.com/phones/news/huawei/143983-huawei-p20-pro-triple-camera-good-review-details-explored

"Huawei P20 Pro camera specs
40MP RGB 1/1.7in type sensor, f/1.8 aperture
20MP monochrome, f/1.6 aperture
8MP 3x zoom, f/2.4 aperture
Optical Image Stabilisation (OIS) for all
24MP front camera, f/2.0 aperture
Laser autofocus and colour temperature sensor

There are three cameras on the rear of the Huawei P20 Pro: two are combined into a raised unit, comprising 40-megapixel colour and 20-megapixel monochrome cameras. These operate in much the same way as previous dual camera Huawei systems, as developed with Leica collaboration.

That means depth measurement for software-derived blurred background (including a professional style aperture adjustment from f/0.95-f/16), alongside expanded dynamic range from the black-and-white senor with colour mapping from the RGB sensor. The key difference in the P20 Pro is there's much more resolution than in any P-series prior and, but of course, that third telephoto lens.

Furthermore, the P20 Pro uses a larger scale sensor than many of its competitors (and its own predecessors). Its 1/1.7in size means the pixels are larger, which gives them greater light-gathering properties for the potential of cleaner, better images as a result."
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Discussions - Public / Re: Will the geek inherit the earth?
« Last post by pxsant on September 21, 2018, 09:36:46 am »
Nobody builds custom desktop applications today. Everything is on the cloud, and "winner take all" in that market.

I hate to disagree with you but I have made a good bit of money doing just that.  And I continue to do so.    Although recently I have migrated a few of them to Web based apps that run on an internal corporate network - not cloud based.   Here is a link for a web site for one of the apps - old desktop version.   This is one of the apps I converted to the Web so corporations could avoid the install and update issues with locally installed desktop apps.

This is used by a number of mid-sized corporations in this area in their Accounts Receivable departments to control collections.  BTW a few months back I screwed up the color scheme on the Website and never bothered to fix it so don't rib me on the puke yellow.   I already know!!

http://www.dbscollections.com/dbs/index.html

This app has a couple of interesting features,  If you are familiar with ETL (Extract/Transform/Load), most corporate apps have that part hard coded in scripts or somewhere else which makes it very hard to manage.   I defined soft templates stored at the database level which the users could define themselves.   In the case of one client (Law Firm) They have numerous clients they do collections for and all of them send a different version of their collections file so this was necessary.
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Discussions - Public / Re: Will the geek inherit the earth?
« Last post by The Gorn on September 21, 2018, 08:45:12 am »
Will the geek inherit the earth?  Yes, if the software they write makes brains no less admirable than a muscular bicep.

By geek you mean programmers, analysts, developers?

I say to your question a flat "no". They will be among the many casualties.

I've seen quite a bit of buzz in the tech press about joblessness and computerization essentially making humans unemployable within the next 30 years in almost all categories.

I can believe it, because just superimpose the path of industrialization on the new AI industry. What happened in mechanically based industry?

Machines replaced human effort. Machines made new kinds of effort possible. Muscles and craft became kind of secondary to skill (in some cases) and industrialized production.

You just need a hell of a lot less people to produce any physical commodity today. Consider coal mining. Mostly it's machines today. It used to be guys with pick axes and explosives.

As far as software I can say that I have been "industrialized" out of my field of contract software development. Nobody builds custom desktop applications today. Everything is on the cloud, and "winner take all" in that market.

So geeks will be alongside doctors wondering what happened.
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Discussions - Public / Will the geek inherit the earth?
« Last post by I D Shukhov on September 21, 2018, 08:10:30 am »
In http://forums.techcareerfubar.com/all-consulting-biz-and-career-discussion/linux-kernel-development-meltdown-and-postmeritocracy-org/  the following quote caught my attention:

Quote
We do not believe that our value as human beings is intrinsically tied to our value as knowledge workers. Our professions do not define us; we are more than the work we do.

Society does value people based on their profession:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupational_prestige#Occupations_by_prestige_(NORC)

I go to a party and someone tells me they are any of these top 25 respected professions and a deferential mindset sets in.  Except for maybe teacher or clergy.  This is a 1989 poll, so "Computer systems analyst or scientist"  most likely would not make it in today's top 20 list.  If the profession was called "computer programmer" or "software engineer" it wouldn't have shown up on the list 29 years ago either.

Almost all top professions involve knowledge work.  The doctor who recalls everything about a medical condition, its etiology, treatment and prognosis and wows everyone at grand rounds can easily be replaced by a robot speaking top-ranked search results today.  Granted, AI sometimes gets things wrong and probably always will.  That's why someone who is less than brilliant, like a physicians assistant, will need to  partner with a medical AI system to do a sanity check, but the intellectual heavy lifting can be done by the medical AI.  Doctors are already looking at Google as an annoying competitor.   They derisively refer to it as "Dr. Google".

Extend knowledge automation to all of the top 20 professions and you can see how what people know will no longer be valued in the future because knowing will be done mostly by computers.  "Our professions do not define us; we are more than the work we do" will soon be true, IMO. 

Automation excludes creative makers and fixers of things.   Surgeons who repair bodies and software engineers who build programs are two jobs which will be slow to fully automate.   Some routine surgeries can be done by robots, but always being controlled by a surgeon.   Some computer programs are written by other programs, but these are routine programs.  Frameworks are an example and they are viewed as tools to be used by software engineers. 

Will the geek inherit the earth?  Yes, if the software they write makes brains no less admirable than a muscular bicep.

 
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All Technology & Tech Help / Re: Windows 1803 update
« Last post by Richardk on September 21, 2018, 05:34:13 am »
Ha-Ha was just asking but that was the first counter-argument that popped into my head, why should they play by their own rules?

If there is a way out, they will find it.
 
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All Technology & Tech Help / Re: Windows 1803 update
« Last post by The Gorn on September 20, 2018, 08:43:56 pm »
It's late and just thinking out load but what about something simple like making MS's update site unavailable via the hosts file? Or does it find a way out come hell or high water?


U srs dude? Really? This is Microsoft we're talking about. the HOSTS file is to delude normies into believing that they have control over the OS.


When you mess around with Windows, I've concluded that you are on enemy territory that THEY!!!!!!! THEY!!! THEY!!! and not YOU control and "OWN".


After all, the software licenses prohibit reverse engineering.
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All Technology & Tech Help / Re: VeraCrypt Alternatives
« Last post by The Gorn on September 20, 2018, 08:41:19 pm »
I like your ideas about Cryptkeeper and often think about just rolling my own with something like Gpg4win.


Thanks. I still use it and it's still solid.


You would go to all of that trouble and run *nix encryption stuff on top of Windows? Wow, I thought *I* was a masochist.  :P
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All Technology & Tech Help / Re: Windows 1803 update
« Last post by Richardk on September 20, 2018, 08:39:25 pm »
It's late and just thinking out load but what about something simple like making MS's update site unavailable via the hosts file? Or does it find a way out come hell or high water?
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