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Messages - Crypto

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Christ Almighty, what an HN-worthy platitude. The government is compartmentalized into a million segments. There are entire buildings of people working for the gov who DO know what a router is. 

I wasn't talking about the government I was talking about some of the writers of these links.

Just links to more articles on why Bitcoin will keep going down.







Link 1
Ivan Martchev says that, once bitcoin crashes, it will never recover

He wrote that article but he never bothered to check the price history of bit coin
If he did he would have seen that Bitcoin has already crashed a number of times and came back stronger each time.
check out the chart.

"a common way to gauge demand from new entrants to the market is to monitor Google trends data (from 2011 to the present) for the search term “Bitcoin.” Such a reflection of public interest tends to correlate strongly with price. High levels of public interest may exaggerate price action; media reports of rising Bitcoin prices draw in greedy, uninformed speculators, creating a feedback loop. This typically leads to a bubble shortly followed by a crash. Bitcoin has experienced at least two such cycles and will likely experience more in future."

The second link is not even about Bitcoin

The third link

Right now, the old money appears to be bailing from the market, forcing losses onto the newbies. Whether they believe enough to stay in is anyone's guess.

It does not matter whether they stay or not.
The current population of bitcoin users is only between 1 to 10 million. With the current levels of interest and new people checking it out the entire so called old guard could completely bail out and be replaced by newcomers with even more waiting in line

The fourth link does not even agree with the premise that BitCoin will keep going down.
The cryptocurrency is almost certainly due for a major correction. But its long-term value remains a mystery.

The fifth link is about people who have taken out mortgages on their house and used their credit cards to buy bitcoin which really is not a good idea but the way prices have gone no doubt some have lucked out and have been able to pay off their entire mortgages and credit card balances in a year. But there is nothing there about why Bitcoin Prices will keep going down.

The Sixth link is about a man who sold everything he had to buy bitcoin. So you know right now it has paid off big-time.
But in this article too, there is no mention of why this means that Bitcoin will keep going down.

Discussions - Public / Thanks
« on: January 01, 2018, 02:02:25 pm »

Is user Crypto Wealthy from Bitcoin?

If so, great for you, and an uncloak would be appropriate. If you have enough wealth you should not care who knows about you.

If not, you're just wasting our time with hollow asperger's fueled techie elitism.

uncloaking in public

Not going to happen I found out about this from personal experience. If you have a big windfall from business or a lucrative successful IPO it is best keeping it as quiet as possible. People who are not in that position or feel it is never going to happen to them will smile in your face then stab you in the back with vicious jealous envy.

One thing that's great about a breakfast club group that I meet regularly with is that they have all been programmers at one time or another but all have started and developed companies, have cashed then in with IPOs or selling to a larger company and have done it all. If you have any kind of big success you will get a sincere congratulations.

We bounce ideas around like this all the time. But the attitude is "How can you make that work"

I don't understand why you would waste time looking for reasons why something won't work. That only results in making it easier for some 22 year old to become an instant millionaire because he just went ahead and found a way to make it work because he had no Competition.

Our philosophy is that we are doing society a favor by keeping those kinds of windfalls out of the hands of 22 year olds. Sudden Wealth like that is not good at that age. Plus we can put that money to better more constructive uses. So we check out and discuss as many of these new ideas and companies as possible.

ArnoldW2 is providing extremely good realistic counterpoint and reality checks to newbie user Crypto's  posturing that he possesses secret arcane knowledge.

The told me I was crazy to waste time here.
But look it already has benefits.

I wish however you could highlight with some symbol those reality checks I have trouble finding them.

One guy in the group who is 70 years old wants to see the reality checks.

Another guy liked your phrase
He wanted to put on his license plate

This car paid for with hollow asperger's fueled techie elitism.

I think it's a lamborghini

But that won't fit on a license plate.
So I told him I could have it printed on one of those magnetic strips and attach to the side of the car.


Discussions - Public / Re: BitCoin’s fourth big crash is now in progress
« on: December 31, 2017, 12:25:31 pm »

I would call the 1929 events a crash. Because the bubble deflated quickly and recovery took over 12 years. But look what triggered it, you could buy stocks with only 10 percent down and the remaining 90 was lent to you by the broker. Worked great for a while when more people were interested in buying and prices were rising. But then when people started to cash in and there were more sellers than buyers the prices started falling then the brokers started calling in the loans and people did not have the money to cover that and the bottom fell out in a nasty crash.

If something goes back and forth with huge swings over 4 times in a year each time coming back higher than the last time than something else is going on. It means more and more new buyers and sellers are coming on board. This is an easy prediction to make. Eventually this will level off

Right outside New Orleans in a suburb called Chalmette there is a battlefield That you can walk on. It was there in January of 1815 that Andrew Jackson and the Americans defeated the British in the battle of New Orleans. What is interesting and relevant about this is that the battle was fought 3 weeks!!! after the Peace Treaty of Ghent that ended the war was signed in Brussels Belgium. It took that long for the news to travel. Today I can sit on that battlefield pull out my pocket cellphone computer and ping a server in Brussels and get a response back in less than 250 milliseconds, less than one quarter of a second.

The often cited Tulip mania goes back to 1637, even slower times. While there are still great lessons to be learned from those times and incidents remember we are in a vastly different world with virtually instantly communication, software that can analyze billions of factors per second and automatically buy and sell. 
So what looks like a classic mania bubble might just be wider volatility from automation.

Those links that you highlight show just how clueless many people are about Bitcoin. One guy calls it a line of code.
 others say it has no value at all.
I guess you could say that unless the ability to make an anonymous payment to anyone anywhere in the world has no value. 

And really they are missing the big picture they don't even mention block chain which is the big story here.
With it's smart contracts, ability to secure deeds,and all kinds of paperwork. Bitcoin is only the first major application of Blockchain technology. It is actually digital cash and a payment system it's not a beanie baby fad that will suddenly disappear.

Plus they don't understand the internet and the new world of iot where every device is a router. How do you block that? Saying the Government will make blockchain illegal as if they just have to pass a law and it is done. So how is the government going to stop me from transferring digital cash from my digital wallet to your digital wallet whenever I want.

People don't have to understand inflation. They just have to observe that when they set aside 6 months of expenses in dollar form eventually this turns into 3 months of expenses and less. There will be stable digital currencies that will keep that 6 months value over time and even increase in value.

Bitcoin is open source, anyone can download it and create their own currency which many have done. There are many clones some with some interesting twists.
It will have to improve a lot to stay on top.
Visa can process 45,000 transactions per second but Bitcoin currently only does a few per second. There is one called NEO Which claims the ability to do over 1,000,000 transactions per second.

This is another easy prediction - none of this is going away there will be a handful of digital currencies That rise to the top they probably will fulfill different needs one will have the fastest transaction time with instant turnover and another might be in demand for it's rock solid price stability. It's clear that most of the action will be in the Ethereum type platforms with it's support of Smart Contracts.

Government Bitcoin will be a joke. the might be able to force the people who work for them and contractors to use that. But the whole point of it's invention was decentralization and going back to centralization defeats the whole point and then they will have the ability to monitor all your spending and even stop transactions. " we stopped you from buying that ice cream because we think it will be unhealthy for you. The wider population will never go along for that.

Discussions - Public / Where's George ?
« on: December 30, 2017, 10:43:50 am »
Where's George ?

If anybody here has ever seen that printed on paper money
they probably know about this site.

It's fascinating it tracks the path of particular paper money bills.

It seems to me if barcodes were added to paper money and barcode readers were a built in feature of computerized networked cash registers it would go a long way to help stop counterfitting especially like those virtually Indistinguishable counterfeit superdollars being printed on very high quality government printing presses in Iran and North Korea. 

Plus it would generate a treasure trove of real raw data that economists could use to create very good realistic reports of economic activity.

Discussions - Public / Prime Consultant Territory
« on: December 30, 2017, 07:31:36 am »
All of this seems to be prime Consultant Territory.

Just do all the research on being an E-Resident and also on how to create digital wallets and how to buy and sell bitcoins and other coins and how it started and what is all about.

These days with Google and dark web search engines if you are willing to put a lot of time and effort into it you can become an expert in some particular area at least more than 99+ percent of the world.
In these especially hot topics there are always people willing to pay for that expertise especially if you can simplify it and give a comprehensive explanation.

You might be able to find a lot of clients who would pay big money to sit down for an hour or two and get answers to all the questions they have and it could be on a regular reoccurring basis taking care of the details of buying and selling.


Discussions - Public / That's not a crash it's a fluctuation
« on: December 30, 2017, 07:10:36 am »
That's not a crash It's a fluctuation

Crash implies something that comes back down to earth and never rises again.

What you are seeing is just the natural process of digital currencies being integrated into the world economic system.

For instance I still run into a lot of people who have not even heard of Bitcoin. But as time goes by more and more people jump on it. The current population of the world is around 7.6 Billion if Bitcoin starts at 1 million users it will have to double (2 million, 4 million ...) 13 times before it reaches the entire worlds population. Each time it doubles because of some new news story or stories trigger it will dramatically increase in price followed by what some people call a crash as profit taking and panic takes place followed by even higher prices as more new people get into it.

Eventually it will stabilize as most of the world has heard of it and used it.

A currency that has a fixed amount like Bitcoin will actually then be more stable than currency like Federal Reserve Notes.

This will be a big problem for Fiat currency producers like the Private Federal Reserve Bank because over the years people will begin to understand that inflation is not prices going up but actually Federal Reserve Note Dollars losing value because more of them are being created.

Too Many!!!

Each H1B Visa is good for 3 years plus a 3 year extension.

So it's at least 6x the annual quota. which itself seems to be "accidentally" passed on a regular basis.

Have to make Trump aware of this. He seems to be the only president that showed any interest in correcting these kinds of situations.

We should put them all on a Blockchain and the "mining" would consist of making a list of all of them who have passed the expiration date and have not left the country.
This could be done on any plain PC and there would be a lot of volunteers to do it.

All payments to them would be required to go through a central clearing house and when their Visa expires they would be blocked.

They would be required to have an updated address of residence at all times. when their Visa expires and there is no record of them leaving the country a visit could be made and if they are not at that address an arrest warrant would be immediately issued.

They would not even need extra staff. Part of the H1B application fee could go to populating a fund that would pay Unemployed Americans to work at making sure that all these details are followed up on. 

Discussions - Public / The First Digital Country
« on: December 28, 2017, 08:52:16 am »
The First Digital Country

A good backup for when your current country foolishly starts to crack down on Bitcoin and the Internet.

You can have dual citizenship and become a virtual e-resident and have a business in Estonia to keep your assets safe.



The GPUs do Mathematical calculations much faster with less overhead so they use less power and the Bitcoin algorithm lends itself to be easily implemented in circuits. So people are building Application Specific Circuit Boards that are faster still and use less power.

If Bitcoin were to crash completely there are now over 1300 other digital currencies ready to step in and replace it.

Discussions - Public / Isn't That what Consultants do?
« on: December 24, 2017, 08:13:28 am »

All I see in those posts is someone just giving details about what they are doing. Something you would expect to find in a Consulting Forum. There are a lot of people doing the same thing. In fact there are bulletin boards dedicated just to developing software on cell phones. One of them has over 4 million members. It's chock full of the same type of post with members bouncing ideas around.

Actually isn't that the point of discussion boards people weigh in with their opinions. And I would expect to find on a Consultants Board people telling you how to do things after all that is how they make their living telling people how to do things.

I noticed the date of the posts was around December 21,2016. Bitcoin at that time was around $800 Recently it passed $16,000 a 20 fold increase in one year. It seems he nailed it perfectly. Hey I will read his posts and he can insult me all he wants if he can come up with something like that again next year. Although I have not seen any insults in any of his posts.

Discussions - Public / Re: Thoughts on cryptocurrency
« on: December 23, 2017, 02:48:20 pm »


Discussions - Public / Re: Thoughts on cryptocurrency
« on: December 23, 2017, 02:46:56 pm »



Discussions - Public / Re: Thoughts on cryptocurrency
« on: December 23, 2017, 02:44:47 pm »

Discussions - Public / It is like mining
« on: December 23, 2017, 09:40:31 am »

It is like mining.

For Bitcoin you Are trying find a number that when run through the algorithm will have 17 zeros in front of the result.

There are about 10^18 total grains of sand on all the beaches and other places in the world. If there were a characteristic you were looking for found in only 1 of every trillion 10^12 grains of sand there would be around 6 million of these scattered around the world. So you would be able to find one eventually if you looked long enough.

Same with the Bitcoin Algorithm Solution. Except that you are working with even bigger numbers 10^20 or more depending on the current level of difficulty.

You start out with hashes that everyone agrees with.
Any block of data can be run thru a hash algorithm to create a number. And if you change even one bit of the data it will result in a completely different hash number.
So any tampering by hackers is quickly rejected.

With Bitcoin about every 10 minutes all valid transactions are gathered together in a block and hashed, the hash is combined with the hash from the previous block then the miners start working on finding a number which hashed with the other numbers will give a result with 17 leading zeros or whatever the current target is. The Hash Algorithm used is SHA256.

It is suprisingly relatively simple. You can actually do a hash by hand with pencil and paper.
Here is how.

The first Miner that comes up with the number that results in the targeted result currently gets 12.5 Bitcoins. There is no formula it depends on brute Force trying every number and luck. About every 10 minutes someone is successful

To keep it at 10 minutes every 2016 blocks, about every 2 weeks adjustments are made in the difficulty of the Solution. If is longer than 2 weeks then the difficulty is decreased only 16 zeros instead of 17 or whatever is needed is the new target. If it less than 2 weeks then the solution will be made more difficult perhaps 18 zeros, if it is exactly 2 weeks then no changes are made.

At currently prices 15,000 per Bit Coin, every 10 minutes somebody gets 12.5 bitcoins valued at over $180,000.

This can be very tempting to set up banks of computers and Bitcoin ASIC devices running constantly. Even if your electric bill is $1000 a month you can make a good living just winning one block a year at $180,000

Discussions - Public / Madness !!! But there is method there
« on: December 23, 2017, 05:23:54 am »
Madness!!! But there is method there

First if you want to be able to send a payment anywhere in the world within a few seconds this digital form is perfect. 

However a physical Bitcoin can easily be created. In fact this is how I store my bitcoins. With paper printouts, flash drives and there are now hardware wallets with small screens. But these are just multiple backups.
This cyber attack map shows why I do this.
More and more of these attacks contain code to scan systems for online wallets and empty them.

Offline physical bitcoins would work with small groups that know and trust each other but physical objects can be easily counterfeited.

Only 21,000,000 Bitcoins are planned to be created.
But in reality with lost bitcoins etc it is estimated that it will top off at about 13,000,000 bitcoins in the year 2040 when new creation ends.

There is nothing to stop this from being changed but to be successful any Alt currency will need a rock solid reputation and any major changes in the rules like that will have a devastating drop in it's support. You can see that now there have been a number of forks within these communities because of major arguments about big changes.

The reason there are big swings is that right now is that is so small. When the Greek Government froze people's bank accounts there suddenly was a large amount of people that suddenly jumped into bit coin. This will stabilize as it grows over the years. Also the new Bitcoin futures trading will enable people to have something like insurance they will be able to lock in a particular price.

And remember too that a bit coin can be subdivided to the 8th decimal place  So it is actually 21,000,000 x 99,999,999 Units so it will be able to handle any type of transaction.

And remember too the whole world is now only unbacked Fiat currencies. Even Switzerland switched in 2000. And in the United States we have a Private Bank called the Federal Reserve in which one person has incredible power over the currency. I welcome the change to this.

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