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Messages - ArnoldW2

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A few months ago, I bought a replacement Li-on battery for my watch.  The regulations for packaging that tiny battery are incredible.  As I recall, the package added another $15.00 to the cost.

I've read several stories of lithium ion batteries catching fire.  Including aircraft batteries on Boeing's newest airliner, the 787, and hoverboard batteries.  Getting Li-on battery technology right has proven to be nearly impossible.

Here's an article pointing out that once a Li-on battery catches fire, it's almost impossible to put it out until after it's discharged.  The Tesla is every bit as bad as the Pinto fiasco decades ago.

All Technology & Tech Help / WOW!!! An incredible amount of stuff.
« on: March 27, 2018, 07:03:22 pm »
Want to freak yourself out?  Here's how much of your information the likes of Facebook and Google store about you without you even realizing it.

All Technology & Tech Help / Some Interesting Articles
« on: March 20, 2018, 04:03:53 pm »

Facebook scandal widens:
Obama campaign's Carol Davidsen admits Democrats sucked out "the entire social network of the US", kept the data and still have it.

Facebook makes their money by exploiting and selling intimate details about the private lives of millions, far beyond the scant details you voluntarily post.  They are not victims.  They are accomplices.

Businesses that make money by collecting and selling detailed records of private lives were once plainly described as "surveillance companies."  Their rebranding as "social media" is the most successful deception since the Department of War became the Department of Defense.

Unfortunately all big US Internet companies are in bed with the deep state.  Google, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, etc. are all providing backdoors to your data.  You may have noticed they all favor the Democrats.  Why?  Obama made them feel special for sharing your data.  Privileges!

Things Must Be Serious, Everyone’s Lying

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker had a moment of clarity once.  He famously said, “When things get serious, you have to lie.”

Does anyone with any shred of self-respect believe that thirteen Russian trolls armed with Tweetium could derail Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign?  Really?

ilconsiglliere wrote:
Sounds to me like they need an anti-trust action against them.

Here's and article that addresses that point more thoroughly.

The real issue with corporate censorship

The reason that Google, Twitter and Facebook have censorship power is that they have become so big that they overwhelm the internet.  They are near monopolies.  Businesses who depend on them for income have nowhere else to go when Google or Facebook arbitrarily ban them.  The real solution is to break giants up into several smaller businesses, thereby creating real competition and alternative places for banned dependent businesses to go.  Real competition would sharply limit their power of censorship.

As the author wrote:
"The real issue isn't that someone decides to banhammer someone else.  It's that market power has been allowed to accumulate in a small number of hands, which is not supposed to happen by design but it has because anti-trust laws have been ignored by the government."

Discussions - Public / Re: Bitcoin Going to 0?
« on: February 11, 2018, 06:31:18 pm »
Unix wrote:
I wouldn't mind cryptocurrencies if I could get assurance that a supercomputer running somewhere underground could not devalue the whole thing.

The key factor preventing too much devaluation is that open source crypto-currencies have a "supply limit".  For example, once the supply of BitCoins have been mined, the mining totally ends.  Forever.  And so does any devaluation that continued mining might otherwise have caused.  Once the last BitCoin has been mined its price may still soar or crash, but no longer because of mining.

Here's a list of crypto-currencies and their "supply limits".
Crypto-Currency    Supply Limit    Web Site Source
Bitcoin Cash 21,000,000
Bitcoin Gold 21,000,000
LiteCoin 84,000,000
NameCoin 21,000,000
Ethereum ClassicUncertain
Ripple100 billion

Here's a site with two lists of crypto-currencies:

Gorn wrote:
The only way a cybercurrency can attain the stability to be used and "trusted" universally as cash like would be central control by a government ... In the "right" context government will flock to trackable crypto currency as a replacement for paper.

In the end, it may come to that.

The compelling feature for governments is the ability to track ALL financial transactions accurately.

Any crypto-currency adopted by governments will NOT have a supply limit -- same as fiat currencies.  This guarantees that, eventually, their crypto-currencies will be inflated to zero value -- same as fiat currencies.  Eventually, can be a long time.  In the case of the U.S., the dollar is still around after more than a century with the Federal Reserve.  And the British Pound has been around for centuries.  Be extremely patient.  Every government currency's time will end someday -- whether fiat or crypto.

One last thing:
Mining is NOT a requirement for crypto-currencies.  All 100 Billion Ripples were declared and issued at the very beginning -- with no mining.  Mining may be useful as a free enterprise incentive system, but I can't think of a good reason for any government to adopt a crypto-currency that has to be "mined", as it would be an unnecessary expense.

Discussions - Public / Re: Bitcoin Going to 0?
« on: February 07, 2018, 06:17:44 pm »
ilconsiglliere wrote:
Govmt has realized that its a threat to the $ and the party is over.

Actually, I think the global elitists DON'T want to end the party just yet.

Right now, they are making money from falling cryptocurrency prices via the new futures contracts.  While it's a pretty good bet that crypto-currencies will hit bottom after a crash of 90% to 99%, it won't be a 100% crash.

But after crypto-currency prices hit bottom, the elitists will want to make money from vastly greater price increases, which will make crypto-currencies more expensive than ever.  That's why the current effort to crush crypto-currencies will stop short total annihilation.

Once cryptocurrency prices are bubbly high (again), government central banks will declare the crypto-currencies to be "safe" and will once again allow the general public to buy.  Otherwise, there will be nobody for the global elitists to sell their BitCoins to at the top.

As long as crypto-currencies are used only for speculation, they are NOT a threat to government fiat currencies.  They will become a threat only when they display enough price stability to function as money.

Remember, the elitists missed out on the first three boom and bust cycles.  Then they missed out on the boom part of the fourth cycle.  Finally, they're now making money on the bust part of the fourth cycle, and they want to make money on the future FIFTH boom and bust cycle.

I think there's a good chance that governments will outlaw all non-government crypto-currencies after the 5th cycle busts, but NOT before that.

Discussions - Public / Re: Bitcoin Crashing?
« on: February 02, 2018, 06:30:11 pm »
Here's another development that will definitely have a big downward effect on crypto-currency prices.

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America bar people from buying bitcoin with a credit card

Discussions - Public / Re: Bitcoin Crashing?
« on: February 02, 2018, 04:02:55 pm »
Here's a development that may have a big downward effect on crypto-currency prices:

Facebook no longer allows crypto-currency ads.

The author of the story predicts that BitCoin will go all the way to zero.

Here's the link:

ilconsiglliere wrote:
I wonder is what is driving the meltdown. Is it the Feds, Wall Street or something else?

I'm not really sure.
Wall Street is a possibility, especially in view of their new crypto-currency futures.
The previous three price crashes of BitCoin were driven by owners selling out.  Wall Street wasn't involved then.

My best guess is that Wall Street and people selling are both driving the current crash.

I'm sure that the Federal Reserve currently views crypto-currencies as not big enough to worry about — yet.
They've taken no action — yet.

Discussions - Public / I just ran across more crypto-currency articles
« on: January 16, 2018, 07:30:25 pm »

CRYPTO INSIDER: Everything is getting smoked

Litecoin has lost half its value since the creator sold all of his stake

The cryptocurrency, created by former Coinbase engineer Charlie Lee in 2011 as a quicker alternative to the flagship bitcoin, was worth an all-time high of $365 as recently as December, according to Markets Insider data.

That price plunged by more than half to $178.

Ripple’s XRP has lost 60% of its value in less than 2 weeks

The token hit an all-time high of $3.31 on January 4, according to Markets Insider data, before sliding 62% over the next 10 days to land at just $1.23 Tuesday afternoon.

Ethereum drops below $1,000 amid crypto bloodbath

The coin is down nearly 30% to $918.24.

I think it's just the warm-up, for the reasons I wrote about in an earlier message thread:

Before I posted this message, I checked the price charts at three different web sites.  I was really surprised at how different they are.  Here are the specifics:

Chart URL
    Dec 2017 High    Jan 16 2018 Price    Percent Decline

More evidence that the crypto-currency business doesn't yet have its act together.

Unix wrote:
At least Federal Reserve Notes were created using some valuable natural resources, like trees and cotton and ink.

The overwhelming majority of dollars are numbers in computers, not pieces of paper.  Worse yet, governments around the world are in the process of ending all paper money, thereby forcing all people to keep all their money in big corporation computers that governments, campaign contributing cronies and hackers can all plunder at will.

Denmark is already in the process of doing away with all their paper money, and many Danish banks no longer accept paper cash.  There, the buying and selling of anything requires a bank debit card or credit card.  Here are some links to articles on the coming abolition of paper money.

Time running out for billions of old Swedish kronor (excerpts below)
Eleven billion kronor of old Swedish coins and banknotes are still in circulation despite the Riksbank central bank's warning that they need to be handed in by the end of June.
Sweden's major money changeover, which began in 2015 and has grabbed headlines around the world, has entered its final phase, meaning that old 1-, 2- and 5-kronor coins, as well as 100-kronor and 500-kronor bank notes, will become invalid after June 30th.

But according to the Riksbank's latest estimate, 9.2 billion kronor's worth of old notes and 1.9 billion kronor coins are still hiding in Swedes' wallets, piggy banks and mattresses.

Should the U.S. move to a cashless society?

A very interesting debate.

Ken Rogoff says YES.

James J. McAndrews says NO.

In China, cash is all but dead thanks to more convenient options.

Michael Pento - Crazy Stock Market Will Crash

He actually talks at great length about the inevitable default on government bonds — maybe explicit default, maybe implicit (inflation), especially as interest rates begin to rise.

Pento says that paper cash must be eliminated to make sure that negative interest rates will work.

The War On Cash (excerpts below)
Nations around the world are taking large denomination bills out of circulation.
The European Central Bank announced in May of last year that its 500-euro note would be gone by the end of 2018.
Now, there’s talk about doing away with $100 bills.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi did away with 1000-rupee banknotes (worth about $15.32) and 500-rupee notes (worth $7.66), although he set redemption deadlines to give people time to deposit them in banks.

The problem with cash is it’s not traceable.

The real reason for the war on cash is taxation. But governments don’t admit that. They use other excuses like national security, that free-flowing cash is feeding terrorist groups, financing the drug trade, that all kinds of illegal activities are cash-driven, and that cash can be counterfeited.

One reason Prime Minister Modi killed the 1000-rupee and 500-rupee notes is tax evasion. Those notes, together, account for 86.4% of the value of all rupee bills in circulation. By forcing the population to exchange expiring notes for new notes, authorities can ask where the money came from, if a tax has been paid on it, and if depositors can prove it. If they can’t, the tax will be taken from it, and a fine totaling as much as 200% of the tax owed will be levied and taken.

Breaking the back of corruption where bribes are paid in cash, and being able to collect income and transaction taxes could only be accomplished by attacking the old cash economy.

The war on cash across Europe is heating up even faster than in the U.S.

Sooner rather than later, we will all need to deposit our cash somewhere or buy hard assets, because one day your cash won’t be nothin’ but trash.

How "Fedcoin" Will Spearhead the War on Cash (excerpts  below)
While hypothetical for now, there's good reason to believe the Federal Reserve is seriously considering the creation of a Fedcoin.

Jim Cunha said:
"Right now, I can tell you categorically, there is no plan to issue a Fedcoin at any specific date or time”.

Cunha's denial is extraordinarily narrow. Just because no Fedcoin launch date is set doesn't mean the Fed isn't working on the project behind closed doors.

A lot of technical issues will need to be resolved to make fiat cryptocurrencies work. For example, many cryptocurrencies, like Bitcoin, are decentralized. A Fedcoin would be totally controlled by the Federal Reserve (and, by extension, the U.S. banking system).

If Fedcoin is introduced and all the dollars have been exchanged for Fedcoin, Americans will get a rude shock.

A cashless society would cripple, if not destroy outright, the underground economy. And the government would rake in billions of additional tax revenue with the bonus of making a lot of common crimes much more difficult.

Fedcoin would become a tool for imposing negative interest rates. You'd have to pay the government interest on your money — unless you spend it all fast.
If everyone spent all their Fedcoin, the resulting stimulus to the U.S. economy would dwarf everything the Fed tried in the years following the 2008 financial crisis.

Unix wrote:
... I need assurance that [BitCoin] won't suddenly crash to zero.

The inventor of BitCoin made sure that there are only 21 million Bitcoins available to be mined.  There will be no more Bitcoins after they've all been mined.  This makes the chance of BitCoin falling to a price of zero much less likely, but it COULD still happen.  If it does, I think it will be because other crypto-currencies displaced it.

I hasten to point out that there is no guarantee that the dollar or the Euro or any other government fiat currency won't crash to zero either.

Unix wrote:
What is the point of "mining"?  Why is that necessary, I don't get it?

I had to read Satoshi Nakamoto's original paper to find out the answer.
His mining process prevents counterfeiting of BitCoins.
No matter how many computers participate, that process is the source of all BitCoins.
Verifying that each BitCoin came from that process is the first step in its blockchain.

Read sections 6 and 12 of Nakamoto's paper for more details.  Here's a link to the pdf:

Discussions - Public / The truth about BitCoin and the world economy
« on: January 09, 2018, 10:48:43 pm »
Bitcoin Isn’t the Bubble — The Global Financial System Is
I agree with most of what the author of this article wrote.  Here are some key excerpts:
For one thing, bubbles don’t do what bitcoin has done since its inception in 2009…They don’t come right back a couple of years later and soar again to a new price 10 times greater than the previous bubble’s high, which is what bitcoin has done after each one of its three or four previous “bubbles” burst.

When a real bonafide bubble bursts. It stays below the prior high for decade at least, sometimes forever.

While we’re on the topic of bubbles, it seems the truly gigantic bubble in the world isn’t bitcoin, but rather the global debt market. This leviathan now stands at around $233 trillion, or 318 percent of global GDP. Even more troubling, an estimated $11 trillion of government debt now trades at negative yields. This means whoever is buying this paper is doing so despite the fact they are guaranteed to lose money on the “investment.” Much of this buying has been propelled by central banks which can print their own currency and buy debt indiscriminately. This is not characteristic of a healthy financial system (particularly so many years into a global recovery), but rather a zombie one that’s been artificially propped up since the financial crisis.

The rise of bitcoin foreshadows the emergence of something potent and new in the realm of money and finance, which also happens to be something the world desperately needs.

Understanding the NonCOINformist
This is another very worthwhile read.  Some key excerpts are:
The argument most used against Crypto-assets is that it is a bubble like the Tulip bubble 500 years ago. I would venture to guess that 90% (99.9%?) of the people making this argument know nothing about the tulip bubble other than they read somebody else’s post that Bitcoin = Tulip bubble and it fits with their negative narrative against Crypto-assets.

The other argument that I hear less now but by those with the least amount of research is that Crypto-assets will fail because ultimately its only purpose is nefarious and clandestine and that eventually all governments will outlaw it.

These people fail to realize/admit almost all crime is greased by cash, either US dollars or the other fiats, and nobody has thought to outlaw USD.

cash has no intrinsic value and in fact, most of our US dollars are entirely in digital form. When its said the government is printing money they are just changing some numbers in the ledger. Its the monetary equivalent of all music going from vinyl to iTunes.

But what intrinsic value does gold really have? Its a rock that people say has value.

Once you get a certain mass to own Bitcoin, I truly believe it has a NETWORK EFFECT that is more powerful than corporate economics.

ilconsiglliere posted this link:

I agree with the author of that article, except for this:
The thing that makes crypto-currencies such a speculative craze right now, their stratospheric increases in value, is also the reason the current crop will likely fail in their intended use as currencies.

The real problem is that there are not enough people using BitCoin -- yet.

As I write this post, the "market cap" of BitCoin is roughly $250 Billion.

According to the Federal Reserve, in November 2017, the M1 money supply was $3.6 Trillion and M2 money supply was $13.8 Trillion.  Here's the link if you're interested.

If (yes, I know this is a big if) enough people start using BitCoin to drive its "market cap" to $2.5 Trillion (a 10 X increase), the price volatility will settle down because it will take vastly more dollars to drive its price up and down, and that would make BitCoin usable as money.  There will still be speculation, but it will be similar to speculating in other fiat currencies.  The conversion rates between dollars and other currencies (the Euro, the British Pound, etc.) do fluctuate, but usually much more slowly than the crazy ups and downs that you see with BitCoin.  If a fiat currency changes value suddenly, its prices crashes downward and never recovers, because the root cause was a government printing too much of it.  And smart currency traders can usually see such crashes coming.

Also, I noticed that the author missed the obstacle of governments refusing to adopt BitCoin, or even opposing it.

Now that we've got some numbers, let's do a little math.

The total number of BitCoins is 21 Million (although not all of them have been "mined" yet).

   Divide assumed future market cap of $2,500,000,000,000  by 21,000,000 BitCoins yields $119,047.62 per BitCoin.

   John McAfee thinks that BitCoin could go to $1,000,000 each.  That would result in a BitCoin "market cap" of $21 Trillion,
   which would surpass the Federal Reserve's M2 of 13.8 Trillion.  That seems debatable to me, at best.

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